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Definitive Analysis

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Axial Retailing Inc. (8255.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,671.40 - $19,822.54$7,195.41
Multi-Stage$3,022.55 - $3,314.65$3,165.87
Blended Fair Value$5,180.64
Current Price$1,173.00
Upside341.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.00%8.35%24.9621.6920.5220.5319.7618.6518.2017.6816.4010.42
YoY Growth--15.09%5.66%-0.05%3.90%5.99%2.45%2.97%7.76%57.45%-6.89%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.15%2.27%2.63%2.11%1.73%1.94%1.68%1.53%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,062.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,426.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,636.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,812.401,132.75679.65
Cash Retained (M)6,636.006,636.006,636.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,812.40-1,132.75-679.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,823.605,503.255,956.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.5589.5589.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.8661.4566.51
LTM Dividend per Share27.0927.0927.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.8661.4566.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend80.9588.5493.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$3,671.40$7,195.41$19,822.54
Upside / Downside212.99%513.42%1,589.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,062.009,505.089,969.8310,457.3010,968.6111,504.9211,850.07
Payout Ratio26.77%39.42%52.06%64.71%77.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,426.003,746.615,190.566,766.768,484.6810,354.4310,961.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)3,494.903,528.543,562.18
Year 2 PV (M)4,516.554,603.924,692.12
Year 3 PV (M)5,492.495,652.635,815.85
Year 4 PV (M)6,424.236,675.176,933.39
Year 5 PV (M)7,313.207,672.018,044.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)243,442.26255,386.40267,794.83
Equity Value (M)270,683.63283,518.68296,843.15
Shares Outstanding (M)89.5589.5589.55
Fair Value$3,022.55$3,165.87$3,314.65
Upside / Downside157.68%169.89%182.58%

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