Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HOYA Corporation (7741.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,065.97 - $19,726.10$13,882.59
Multi-Stage$9,455.25 - $10,343.46$9,891.18
Blended Fair Value$11,886.89
Current Price$20,475.00
Upside-41.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.45%1.81%111.58112.63115.5896.4397.9498.8799.1684.3585.5391.48
YoY Growth---0.93%-2.55%19.86%-1.54%-0.95%-0.29%17.56%-1.38%-6.51%-1.89%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.61%0.68%0.83%0.66%0.96%1.20%1.34%1.47%2.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209,280.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55,040.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)154,240.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,856.0026,160.0015,696.00
Cash Retained (M)154,240.00154,240.00154,240.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,856.00-26,160.00-15,696.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)112,384.00128,080.00138,544.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)344.31344.31344.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share326.41372.00402.39
LTM Dividend per Share159.86159.86159.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share326.41372.00402.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend486.27531.85562.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate3.86%4.86%5.86%
Fair Value$10,065.97$13,882.59$19,726.10
Upside / Downside-50.84%-32.20%-3.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209,280.00219,453.74230,122.05241,308.99253,039.75265,340.79273,301.01
Payout Ratio26.30%39.04%51.78%64.52%77.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55,040.0085,674.20119,156.78155,692.26195,498.36238,806.71252,803.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.88%8.88%8.88%
Growth Rate3.86%4.86%5.86%
Year 1 PV (M)77,937.4178,687.8179,438.21
Year 2 PV (M)98,607.63100,515.61102,441.86
Year 3 PV (M)117,207.31120,625.51124,109.52
Year 4 PV (M)133,883.38139,114.57144,497.57
Year 5 PV (M)148,773.63156,075.01163,660.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,679,086.012,810,567.842,947,161.93
Equity Value (M)3,255,495.383,405,586.343,561,309.38
Shares Outstanding (M)344.31344.31344.31
Fair Value$9,455.25$9,891.18$10,343.46
Upside / Downside-53.82%-51.69%-49.48%

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