Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Rayzher (7703.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.70 - $134.16$108.71
Multi-Stage$199.92 - $219.95$209.74
Blended Fair Value$159.22
Current Price$226.00
Upside-29.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%6.447.333.060.001.820.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---12.22%140.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%4.02%2.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)320.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.0140.0024.00
Cash Retained (M)128.93128.93128.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.01-40.00-24.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.9388.93104.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.3734.3734.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.593.05
LTM Dividend per Share5.565.565.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.593.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.458.158.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$86.70$108.71$134.16
Upside / Downside-61.64%-51.90%-40.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)320.03316.83313.66310.52307.42304.35313.48
Payout Ratio59.71%65.77%71.83%77.89%83.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.10208.38225.30241.85258.06273.91289.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)193.83195.81197.79
Year 2 PV (M)194.93198.93202.97
Year 3 PV (M)194.65200.67206.81
Year 4 PV (M)193.19201.20209.45
Year 5 PV (M)190.74200.67211.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,903.766,211.196,531.28
Equity Value (M)6,871.107,208.467,559.31
Shares Outstanding (M)34.3734.3734.37
Fair Value$199.92$209.74$219.95
Upside / Downside-11.54%-7.19%-2.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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