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Definitive Analysis

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Watami Co., Ltd. (7522.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,458.43 - $18,872.48$17,686.27
Multi-Stage$2,570.03 - $2,813.69$2,689.62
Blended Fair Value$10,187.95
Current Price$960.00
Upside961.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS24.54%8.82%21.9119.419.110.022.477.317.264.899.780.15
YoY Growth--12.85%113.15%36,400.00%-98.99%-66.21%0.69%48.47%-50.00%6,433.33%-98.41%
Dividend Yield--2.14%2.07%1.01%0.00%0.27%0.77%0.50%0.34%0.73%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,803.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)910.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,893.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)760.60475.38285.23
Cash Retained (M)2,893.002,893.002,893.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-760.60-475.38-285.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,132.402,417.632,607.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.0840.0840.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.2160.3365.07
LTM Dividend per Share22.7122.7122.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.2160.3365.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend75.9283.0387.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,458.43$17,686.27$18,872.48
Upside / Downside572.75%1,742.32%1,865.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,803.004,050.204,313.464,593.834,892.435,210.445,366.75
Payout Ratio23.93%37.14%50.36%63.57%76.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)910.001,504.362,172.132,920.363,756.694,689.404,964.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,396.131,409.361,422.60
Year 2 PV (M)1,870.841,906.471,942.44
Year 3 PV (M)2,334.332,401.342,469.62
Year 4 PV (M)2,786.802,893.973,004.21
Year 5 PV (M)3,228.443,384.373,546.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,378.3695,791.97100,374.50
Equity Value (M)102,994.90107,787.49112,759.64
Shares Outstanding (M)40.0840.0840.08
Fair Value$2,570.03$2,689.62$2,813.69
Upside / Downside167.71%180.17%193.09%

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