Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Alpha Purchase Co., Ltd. (7115.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,360.89 - $7,234.96$3,766.88
Multi-Stage$8,209.49 - $9,071.76$8,631.97
Blended Fair Value$6,199.43
Current Price$2,767.00
Upside124.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%21.2514.1810.275.475.270.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--49.86%38.05%87.88%3.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.28%0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)974.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)263.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)711.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.99121.8773.12
Cash Retained (M)711.74711.74711.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.99-121.87-73.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)516.74589.87638.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.969.969.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.9059.2564.15
LTM Dividend per Share26.4426.4426.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.9059.2564.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend78.3485.6990.59
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,360.89$3,766.88$7,234.96
Upside / Downside-14.68%36.14%161.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)974.97965.22955.57946.01936.55927.19955.00
Payout Ratio27.00%39.60%52.20%64.80%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)263.23382.22498.80613.01724.89834.47883.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)373.68377.49381.31
Year 2 PV (M)476.76486.54496.42
Year 3 PV (M)572.84590.55608.63
Year 4 PV (M)662.25689.69717.98
Year 5 PV (M)745.32784.13824.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,900.7283,009.2687,287.20
Equity Value (M)81,731.5685,937.6790,316.08
Shares Outstanding (M)9.969.969.96
Fair Value$8,209.49$8,631.97$9,071.76
Upside / Downside196.69%211.96%227.86%

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