Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. (7012.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,882.46 - $37,438.06$19,099.55
Multi-Stage$12,006.22 - $13,164.99$12,574.74
Blended Fair Value$15,837.15
Current Price$10,900.00
Upside45.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.44%0.67%100.1580.1450.0820.220.3569.9664.9350.03109.63119.62
YoY Growth--24.96%60.03%147.72%5,635.59%-99.50%7.75%29.77%-54.36%-8.35%27.73%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.32%1.36%0.79%0.01%4.51%2.51%1.53%3.30%4.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76,871.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,821.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)52,050.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,374.209,608.885,765.33
Cash Retained (M)52,050.0052,050.0052,050.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,374.20-9,608.88-5,765.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)36,675.8042,441.1346,284.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.39167.39167.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share219.11253.55276.52
LTM Dividend per Share148.29148.29148.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share219.11253.55276.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend367.40401.84424.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.34%4.34%5.34%
Fair Value$11,882.46$19,099.55$37,438.06
Upside / Downside9.01%75.23%243.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76,871.0080,210.0983,694.2187,329.6891,123.0795,081.2397,933.66
Payout Ratio32.29%43.83%55.37%66.92%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,821.0035,157.1546,344.4158,437.2471,493.1885,573.1090,588.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.34%4.34%5.34%
Year 1 PV (M)32,683.0432,999.3033,315.55
Year 2 PV (M)40,051.1640,830.0241,616.37
Year 3 PV (M)46,947.9148,324.0149,726.74
Year 4 PV (M)53,394.9455,491.8357,649.88
Year 5 PV (M)59,413.0362,343.7365,388.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,777,170.521,864,834.191,955,923.61
Equity Value (M)2,009,660.622,104,823.072,203,621.12
Shares Outstanding (M)167.39167.39167.39
Fair Value$12,006.22$12,574.74$13,164.99
Upside / Downside10.15%15.36%20.78%

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