Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Maixinlin Aviation Science and Technology Corp. (688685.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.24 - $88.30$82.75
Multi-Stage$11.93 - $13.03$12.47
Blended Fair Value$47.61
Current Price$61.90
Upside-23.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS54.48%0.00%0.170.240.010.020.010.020.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth---29.37%2,587.36%-43.49%24.42%-34.08%163.39%-17.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.64%0.06%0.10%0.05%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.128.204.92
Cash Retained (M)10.7910.7910.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.12-8.20-4.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.332.595.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.70147.70147.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.24$82.75$88.30
Upside / Downside-57.61%33.68%42.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.5869.8474.3879.2184.3689.8592.54
Payout Ratio83.55%84.84%86.13%87.42%88.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.7959.2564.0669.2574.8480.8685.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.93%6.93%6.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.8955.4155.93
Year 2 PV (M)54.9856.0357.09
Year 3 PV (M)55.0656.6458.25
Year 4 PV (M)55.1357.2559.43
Year 5 PV (M)55.1857.8560.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,487.051,558.871,633.45
Equity Value (M)1,762.291,842.041,924.75
Shares Outstanding (M)147.70147.70147.70
Fair Value$11.93$12.47$13.03
Upside / Downside-80.72%-79.85%-78.95%

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