Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

APT Medical Inc. (688617.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.66 - $271.36$178.61
Multi-Stage$90.68 - $99.02$94.78
Blended Fair Value$136.69
Current Price$316.73
Upside-56.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS86.32%0.00%1.120.940.580.280.010.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.38%62.62%107.89%2,249.12%-76.32%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.45%0.34%0.27%0.01%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)768.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)170.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)598.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.6696.0457.62
Cash Retained (M)598.05598.05598.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.66-96.04-57.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)444.39502.01540.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.724.214.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.724.214.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$124.66$178.61$271.36
Upside / Downside-60.64%-43.61%-14.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)768.31818.25871.44928.08988.401,052.651,084.23
Payout Ratio22.16%35.73%49.30%62.86%76.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)170.26292.35429.58583.43755.46947.381,002.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)263.61266.11268.61
Year 2 PV (M)349.29355.94362.65
Year 3 PV (M)427.75440.02452.54
Year 4 PV (M)499.43518.64538.39
Year 5 PV (M)564.75592.03620.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,715.879,136.859,573.94
Equity Value (M)10,820.6911,309.5911,816.48
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$90.68$94.78$99.02
Upside / Downside-71.37%-70.08%-68.74%

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