Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Easton Biopharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (688513.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.00 - $96.99$53.13
Multi-Stage$23.00 - $25.13$24.05
Blended Fair Value$38.59
Current Price$55.34
Upside-30.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.92%40.18%0.420.380.530.200.000.130.000.130.000.00
YoY Growth--10.20%-28.21%160.00%5,074.19%-96.91%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%1.01%1.47%0.57%0.01%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.2730.1718.10
Cash Retained (M)164.41164.41164.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.27-30.17-18.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.14134.24146.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)175.90175.90175.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.760.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.00$53.13$96.99
Upside / Downside-38.57%-3.99%75.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.37257.06273.77291.57310.52330.70340.62
Payout Ratio31.88%43.51%55.13%66.75%78.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.96111.84150.93194.63243.37297.63315.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)101.73102.69103.66
Year 2 PV (M)124.87127.25129.65
Year 3 PV (M)146.47150.68154.96
Year 4 PV (M)166.60173.00179.59
Year 5 PV (M)185.32194.27203.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,321.263,481.683,648.24
Equity Value (M)4,046.254,229.584,419.67
Shares Outstanding (M)175.90175.90175.90
Fair Value$23.00$24.05$25.13
Upside / Downside-58.43%-56.55%-54.60%

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