Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luoyang Jianlong Micro-nano New Material Co., Ltd (688357.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.02 - $159.07$149.07
Multi-Stage$224.98 - $246.97$235.77
Blended Fair Value$192.42
Current Price$39.88
Upside382.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.40%12.48%0.590.550.820.380.300.080.130.150.100.10
YoY Growth--7.75%-33.41%119.78%23.66%269.03%-35.44%-16.21%52.23%0.05%-45.32%
Dividend Yield--2.29%1.68%1.47%0.51%0.70%0.31%0.51%0.60%0.40%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.3210.836.50
Cash Retained (M)51.4851.4851.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.32-10.83-6.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.1640.6644.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.29108.29108.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate-14.59%-14.59%-14.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$135.02$149.07$159.07
Upside / Downside238.56%273.80%298.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.6292.2598.24104.63111.43118.67122.23
Payout Ratio40.56%50.45%60.34%70.23%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.1346.5459.2873.4889.27106.80113.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-14.59%-14.59%-14.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53.9854.4955.00
Year 2 PV (M)79.7481.2682.79
Year 3 PV (M)114.63117.92121.28
Year 4 PV (M)161.53167.74174.13
Year 5 PV (M)224.15234.98246.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,728.8224,874.9426,064.91
Equity Value (M)24,362.8625,531.3326,744.33
Shares Outstanding (M)108.29108.29108.29
Fair Value$224.98$235.77$246.97
Upside / Downside464.14%491.19%519.28%

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