Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Yanmade Technology Inc. (688312.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.28 - $24.25$17.83
Multi-Stage$22.15 - $24.30$23.20
Blended Fair Value$20.52
Current Price$34.45
Upside-40.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS33.43%0.00%0.440.230.660.330.220.100.080.310.310.00
YoY Growth--92.56%-65.76%102.08%46.03%117.34%22.43%-72.77%0.55%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.44%3.60%1.54%1.00%0.17%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.7815.499.29
Cash Retained (M)48.0648.0648.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.78-15.49-9.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.2732.5738.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)133.25133.25133.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.89%1.89%2.89%
Fair Value$13.28$17.83$24.25
Upside / Downside-61.44%-48.25%-29.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.92126.26128.64131.07133.55136.07140.16
Payout Ratio61.22%66.98%72.73%78.49%84.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.8684.5693.57102.88112.51122.47129.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.89%1.89%2.89%
Year 1 PV (M)78.5979.3780.15
Year 2 PV (M)80.8282.4384.06
Year 3 PV (M)82.5985.0787.60
Year 4 PV (M)83.9587.3390.81
Year 5 PV (M)84.9389.2293.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,540.152,668.562,802.11
Equity Value (M)2,951.033,091.983,238.41
Shares Outstanding (M)133.25133.25133.25
Fair Value$22.15$23.20$24.30
Upside / Downside-35.71%-32.64%-29.45%

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