Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Triductor Technology (Suzhou) Inc. (688259.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.28 - $150.53$112.60
Multi-Stage$18.52 - $20.26$19.38
Blended Fair Value$65.99
Current Price$46.91
Upside40.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS106.12%0.00%0.230.270.220.000.010.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---15.97%23.37%5,324.42%-58.20%58.28%-26.27%80.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.68%0.40%0.01%0.02%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4610.296.17
Cash Retained (M)60.0660.0660.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.46-10.29-6.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.6049.7753.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.75108.75108.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.28$112.60$150.53
Upside / Downside-16.27%140.03%220.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.3187.6693.3699.43105.89112.78116.16
Payout Ratio27.03%39.63%52.22%64.81%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.2534.7448.7564.4581.97101.50107.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.1232.4332.73
Year 2 PV (M)41.6942.4843.29
Year 3 PV (M)50.9652.4253.91
Year 4 PV (M)59.9362.2464.61
Year 5 PV (M)68.6371.9475.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,760.601,845.641,933.93
Equity Value (M)2,013.932,107.152,203.85
Shares Outstanding (M)108.75108.75108.75
Fair Value$18.52$19.38$20.26
Upside / Downside-60.52%-58.70%-56.80%

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