Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co., Ltd. (688087.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$308.69 - $363.69$340.83
Multi-Stage$85.50 - $93.74$89.55
Blended Fair Value$215.19
Current Price$26.41
Upside714.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS41.08%0.00%0.490.280.170.020.040.090.060.030.000.00
YoY Growth--76.79%60.10%910.18%-60.36%-50.70%41.27%87.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.78%1.11%0.58%0.04%0.08%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)339.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)281.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.8042.3825.43
Cash Retained (M)281.84281.84281.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.80-42.38-25.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.04239.46256.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)185.38185.38185.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.291.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.291.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$308.69$340.83$363.69
Upside / Downside1,068.84%1,190.53%1,277.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)339.02361.05384.52409.52436.13464.48478.42
Payout Ratio16.87%31.49%46.12%60.75%75.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.18113.71177.34248.77328.73418.04442.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)107.06108.07109.09
Year 2 PV (M)157.21160.21163.23
Year 3 PV (M)207.64213.60219.68
Year 4 PV (M)258.35268.28278.50
Year 5 PV (M)309.33324.27339.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,810.4415,525.7916,268.52
Equity Value (M)15,850.0416,600.2317,378.80
Shares Outstanding (M)185.38185.38185.38
Fair Value$85.50$89.55$93.74
Upside / Downside223.73%239.06%254.96%

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