Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Socionext Inc. (6526.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$512.79 - $786.78$640.58
Multi-Stage$1,163.90 - $1,278.34$1,220.00
Blended Fair Value$930.29
Current Price$2,776.00
Upside-66.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%50.3362.740.000.730.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---19.78%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.63%0.00%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,072.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,928.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,144.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,014.401,259.00755.40
Cash Retained (M)1,144.001,144.001,144.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,014.40-1,259.00-755.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)-870.40-115.00388.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.88177.88177.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.89-0.652.18
LTM Dividend per Share50.1950.1950.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.89-0.652.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend45.3049.5452.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$512.79$640.58$786.78
Upside / Downside-81.53%-76.92%-71.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,072.009,971.289,871.579,772.859,675.129,578.379,865.72
Payout Ratio88.64%88.91%89.19%89.46%89.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,928.008,865.818,803.968,742.478,681.338,620.539,125.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8,228.498,312.458,396.42
Year 2 PV (M)7,583.717,739.277,896.41
Year 3 PV (M)6,989.407,205.557,426.11
Year 4 PV (M)6,441.606,708.576,983.76
Year 5 PV (M)5,936.686,245.816,567.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)171,855.73180,804.66190,122.56
Equity Value (M)207,035.61217,016.32227,392.95
Shares Outstanding (M)177.88177.88177.88
Fair Value$1,163.90$1,220.00$1,278.34
Upside / Downside-58.07%-56.05%-53.95%

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