Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Yongmaotai Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. (605208.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.30 - $29.81$27.94
Multi-Stage$19.27 - $21.15$20.19
Blended Fair Value$24.06
Current Price$14.40
Upside67.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162014
DPS21.19%7.97%0.090.090.150.130.040.030.030.040.130.05
YoY Growth---4.70%-39.08%14.32%244.56%14.31%4.44%-18.14%-68.33%135.48%29.23%
Dividend Yield--0.81%1.20%1.35%1.33%0.28%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.356.473.88
Cash Retained (M)32.5732.5732.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.35-6.47-3.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.2326.1128.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)345.17345.17345.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate0.01%0.01%0.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.30$27.94$29.81
Upside / Downside75.71%94.00%107.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.7455.1058.6862.5066.5670.8973.01
Payout Ratio37.04%47.63%58.22%68.82%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.1626.2534.1743.0152.8563.8067.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.01%0.01%0.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.0026.2426.49
Year 2 PV (M)33.5234.1634.80
Year 3 PV (M)41.7942.9944.21
Year 4 PV (M)50.8752.8254.84
Year 5 PV (M)60.8263.7566.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,438.046,749.007,071.86
Equity Value (M)6,651.036,968.977,299.01
Shares Outstanding (M)345.17345.17345.17
Fair Value$19.27$20.19$21.15
Upside / Downside33.81%40.21%46.85%

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