Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (603899.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152.75 - $286.35$268.35
Multi-Stage$45.85 - $50.14$47.96
Blended Fair Value$158.16
Current Price$27.43
Upside476.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.04%40.58%0.810.500.610.500.400.300.250.250.250.25
YoY Growth--61.69%-17.00%20.04%26.01%33.33%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%828.03%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.30%1.23%1.03%0.47%0.65%0.67%0.82%1.41%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,322.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)922.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)264.51165.3299.19
Cash Retained (M)400.45400.45400.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-264.51-165.32-99.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.94235.13301.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)918.51918.51918.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$152.75$268.35$286.35
Upside / Downside456.88%878.32%943.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,322.531,408.491,500.041,597.541,701.381,811.971,866.33
Payout Ratio69.72%73.78%77.83%81.89%85.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)922.081,039.141,167.521,308.201,462.241,630.781,726.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)968.41977.59986.77
Year 2 PV (M)1,014.001,033.321,052.81
Year 3 PV (M)1,058.861,089.251,120.23
Year 4 PV (M)1,102.991,145.401,189.03
Year 5 PV (M)1,146.391,201.761,259.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,824.7738,603.4240,450.15
Equity Value (M)42,115.4344,050.7546,058.25
Shares Outstanding (M)918.51918.51918.51
Fair Value$45.85$47.96$50.14
Upside / Downside67.16%74.84%82.81%

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