Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd (603885.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.72 - $67.31$51.50
Multi-Stage$8.63 - $9.43$9.02
Blended Fair Value$30.26
Current Price$13.60
Upside122.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.10%17.83%0.480.290.250.290.400.230.360.310.280.28
YoY Growth--66.40%16.46%-14.05%-28.23%76.46%-36.68%14.60%11.52%-0.04%202.45%
Dividend Yield--3.68%2.26%1.38%2.11%2.68%2.28%2.30%2.12%1.70%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)732.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)557.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)174.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.5591.6054.96
Cash Retained (M)174.90174.90174.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.55-91.60-54.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.3583.31119.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.072,165.072,165.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.72$51.50$67.31
Upside / Downside30.26%278.67%394.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)732.76780.39831.12885.14942.671,003.951,034.07
Payout Ratio76.13%78.90%81.68%84.45%87.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)557.86615.77678.84747.52822.26903.55956.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)569.48574.88580.28
Year 2 PV (M)580.63591.69602.85
Year 3 PV (M)591.31608.28625.58
Year 4 PV (M)601.53624.67648.46
Year 5 PV (M)611.32640.85671.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,736.5116,496.5817,285.75
Equity Value (M)18,690.7719,536.9420,414.42
Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.072,165.072,165.07
Fair Value$8.63$9.02$9.43
Upside / Downside-36.52%-33.65%-30.67%

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