Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai AtHub Co.,Ltd. (603881.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.27 - $43.87$41.11
Multi-Stage$7.57 - $8.28$7.92
Blended Fair Value$24.52
Current Price$36.61
Upside-33.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.71%17.23%0.170.200.230.260.200.110.100.040.040.04
YoY Growth---13.49%-14.35%-9.22%27.34%77.26%17.65%116.10%4.70%14.92%5.56%
Dividend Yield--0.59%1.58%1.40%1.55%1.42%0.71%0.68%0.33%0.21%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)146.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.3918.3711.02
Cash Retained (M)46.6846.6846.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.39-18.37-11.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.2928.3135.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)666.19666.19666.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.27$41.11$43.87
Upside / Downside-9.13%12.30%19.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)146.96156.51166.68177.52189.06201.34207.38
Payout Ratio68.23%72.59%76.94%81.29%85.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.27113.60128.25144.31161.92181.21191.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.11107.11108.12
Year 2 PV (M)111.88114.01116.16
Year 3 PV (M)117.59120.96124.40
Year 4 PV (M)123.23127.97132.84
Year 5 PV (M)128.81135.03141.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,456.674,671.934,895.43
Equity Value (M)5,044.285,277.015,518.44
Shares Outstanding (M)666.19666.19666.19
Fair Value$7.57$7.92$8.28
Upside / Downside-79.32%-78.36%-77.37%

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