Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Luokai Mechanical &Electrical Co., Ltd . (603829.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.71 - $132.81$124.47
Multi-Stage$18.75 - $20.51$19.62
Blended Fair Value$72.04
Current Price$23.21
Upside210.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.44%7.76%0.160.230.170.150.120.120.110.080.120.07
YoY Growth---31.55%35.64%13.06%21.12%2.52%10.78%30.83%-29.60%61.36%-1.67%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.71%1.26%1.35%1.14%1.25%0.87%0.47%1.13%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7314.208.52
Cash Retained (M)66.6166.6166.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.73-14.20-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.8852.4058.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.16170.16170.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.71$124.47$132.81
Upside / Downside109.87%436.26%472.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.64121.02128.89137.27146.19155.69160.36
Payout Ratio41.39%51.11%60.83%70.56%80.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.0361.8678.4196.85117.36140.12148.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)57.4558.0058.54
Year 2 PV (M)67.6468.9370.23
Year 3 PV (M)77.6079.8282.09
Year 4 PV (M)87.3390.6994.14
Year 5 PV (M)96.85101.52106.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,803.342,938.753,079.33
Equity Value (M)3,190.203,337.703,490.71
Shares Outstanding (M)170.16170.16170.16
Fair Value$18.75$19.62$20.51
Upside / Downside-19.22%-15.49%-11.61%

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