Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd. (603809.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.27 - $78.88$73.92
Multi-Stage$11.58 - $12.67$12.12
Blended Fair Value$43.02
Current Price$16.63
Upside158.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.83%12.70%0.160.150.200.110.070.100.140.010.000.00
YoY Growth--7.14%-27.19%78.43%54.84%-29.18%-24.89%1,795.08%283.01%1,017.20%-99.64%
Dividend Yield--1.26%2.77%3.29%1.77%1.28%3.28%3.80%0.16%0.04%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.8043.0025.80
Cash Retained (M)176.27176.27176.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.80-43.00-25.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.47133.27150.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)867.34867.34867.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.27$73.92$78.88
Upside / Downside94.04%344.50%374.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.00366.36390.18415.54442.55471.31485.45
Payout Ratio48.76%57.01%65.26%73.50%81.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.73208.85254.61305.44361.79424.18449.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.20196.04197.88
Year 2 PV (M)220.13224.32228.56
Year 3 PV (M)245.54252.59259.77
Year 4 PV (M)270.43280.83291.53
Year 5 PV (M)294.82309.06323.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,822.919,249.069,691.52
Equity Value (M)10,048.0310,511.9010,993.10
Shares Outstanding (M)867.34867.34867.34
Fair Value$11.58$12.12$12.67
Upside / Downside-30.34%-27.12%-23.79%

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