Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hongtian Technology Co.,Ltd. (603800.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.49 - $5.06$4.25
Multi-Stage$5.22 - $5.72$5.46
Blended Fair Value$4.86
Current Price$49.08
Upside-90.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.12%11.37%0.290.310.090.100.590.590.160.000.120.26
YoY Growth---6.65%241.05%-4.85%-83.84%1.16%272.22%0.00%-100.00%-54.58%166.55%
Dividend Yield--0.85%1.31%0.32%0.36%6.50%4.60%1.12%0.00%0.37%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8611.797.07
Cash Retained (M)60.0460.0460.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.86-11.79-7.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.1948.2652.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.40201.40201.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate-1.04%-0.04%0.96%
Fair Value$3.49$4.25$5.06
Upside / Downside-92.90%-91.34%-89.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.2994.2594.2194.1794.1394.0996.91
Payout Ratio36.32%47.06%57.79%68.53%79.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.2544.3554.4564.5374.6184.6889.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate-1.04%-0.04%0.96%
Year 1 PV (M)40.0740.4740.87
Year 2 PV (M)44.4345.3346.25
Year 3 PV (M)47.5749.0350.52
Year 4 PV (M)49.6951.7253.83
Year 5 PV (M)50.9453.5756.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)818.24860.43904.34
Equity Value (M)1,050.941,100.561,152.11
Shares Outstanding (M)201.40201.40201.40
Fair Value$5.22$5.46$5.72
Upside / Downside-89.37%-88.87%-88.34%

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