Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (603659.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.46 - $154.89$145.15
Multi-Stage$30.63 - $33.56$32.07
Blended Fair Value$88.61
Current Price$30.92
Upside186.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.55%88.34%0.270.340.240.150.130.140.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---20.82%44.36%59.95%9.98%-6.12%61.46%2,565.69%620.24%-44.00%71.39%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.69%0.68%0.30%0.57%0.96%0.66%0.03%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,651.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)541.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,110.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)330.39206.50123.90
Cash Retained (M)1,110.411,110.411,110.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-330.39-206.50-123.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)780.02903.92986.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.122,121.122,121.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate5.63%5.63%5.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$131.46$145.15$154.89
Upside / Downside325.18%369.44%400.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,651.961,759.341,873.701,995.492,125.202,263.332,331.23
Payout Ratio32.78%44.23%55.67%67.11%78.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)541.55778.081,043.081,339.231,669.482,037.002,156.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.63%5.63%5.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)729.69736.61743.52
Year 2 PV (M)917.36934.83952.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,104.561,136.271,168.58
Year 4 PV (M)1,291.301,340.961,392.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,477.581,548.941,623.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,453.6962,325.3265,306.86
Equity Value (M)64,974.1868,022.9471,186.52
Shares Outstanding (M)2,121.122,121.122,121.12
Fair Value$30.63$32.07$33.56
Upside / Downside-0.93%3.72%8.54%

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