Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.,Ltd. (603535.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.94 - $10.02$7.72
Multi-Stage$4.76 - $5.19$4.98
Blended Fair Value$6.35
Current Price$11.73
Upside-45.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.72%97.67%0.080.070.060.050.040.040.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--22.42%20.68%12.54%22.67%10.83%-50.00%2,863.55%-31.98%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.98%0.71%0.58%0.42%0.79%1.12%0.03%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.4723.4214.05
Cash Retained (M)149.95149.95149.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.47-23.42-14.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.48126.53135.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)401.53401.53401.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate12.13%12.13%12.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.94$7.72$10.02
Upside / Downside-49.38%-34.18%-14.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.37199.55212.52226.34241.05256.72264.42
Payout Ratio19.97%33.98%47.98%61.99%75.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.4267.80101.97140.30183.18231.05244.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.13%12.13%12.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9060.4761.03
Year 2 PV (M)79.5981.1082.63
Year 3 PV (M)96.7399.51102.34
Year 4 PV (M)111.58115.87120.28
Year 5 PV (M)124.32130.33136.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,441.091,510.701,582.97
Equity Value (M)1,913.211,997.972,085.82
Shares Outstanding (M)401.53401.53401.53
Fair Value$4.76$4.98$5.19
Upside / Downside-59.38%-57.58%-55.71%

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