Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (603527.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.07 - $85.48$80.10
Multi-Stage$12.44 - $13.60$13.01
Blended Fair Value$46.56
Current Price$11.56
Upside302.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.70%-1.61%0.260.270.230.150.150.140.130.100.090.05
YoY Growth---4.88%18.60%50.71%-0.28%12.10%5.40%33.62%9.81%94.07%-85.09%
Dividend Yield--2.60%2.51%1.68%1.34%2.02%1.46%1.40%0.74%0.90%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1416.9710.18
Cash Retained (M)53.3153.3153.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.14-16.97-10.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1636.3443.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.07$80.10$85.48
Upside / Downside186.11%592.94%639.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.72144.54153.94163.94174.60185.95191.53
Payout Ratio60.72%66.58%72.43%78.29%84.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.4196.23111.50128.35146.92167.35177.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.4390.2891.13
Year 2 PV (M)96.3098.1399.98
Year 3 PV (M)103.01105.97108.98
Year 4 PV (M)109.57113.79118.12
Year 5 PV (M)115.99121.60127.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,413.913,578.813,750.01
Equity Value (M)3,928.214,108.564,295.63
Shares Outstanding (M)315.78315.78315.78
Fair Value$12.44$13.01$13.60
Upside / Downside7.61%12.55%17.68%

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