Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fujian Apex Software Co.,LTD (603383.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.81 - $189.37$96.22
Multi-Stage$22.69 - $24.77$23.71
Blended Fair Value$59.97
Current Price$42.86
Upside39.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.72%28.16%1.110.670.460.330.290.290.210.000.000.01
YoY Growth--67.47%45.70%39.68%11.99%-0.02%40.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-84.56%
Dividend Yield--2.91%2.06%1.04%1.38%1.39%0.85%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)196.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.2124.5014.70
Cash Retained (M)31.7331.7331.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.21-24.50-14.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.487.2217.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)205.88205.88205.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.81$96.22$189.37
Upside / Downside-2.45%124.51%341.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)196.04208.78222.35236.80252.19268.59276.64
Payout Ratio83.82%85.05%86.29%87.53%88.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.31177.57191.86207.26223.86241.73255.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)163.75165.30166.86
Year 2 PV (M)163.16166.27169.40
Year 3 PV (M)162.54167.20171.96
Year 4 PV (M)161.88168.11174.51
Year 5 PV (M)161.20168.99177.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,859.004,045.394,238.92
Equity Value (M)4,671.544,881.265,098.72
Shares Outstanding (M)205.88205.88205.88
Fair Value$22.69$23.71$24.77
Upside / Downside-47.06%-44.68%-42.22%

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