Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhende Medical Co., Ltd. (603301.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.91 - $98.61$47.46
Multi-Stage$19.46 - $21.22$20.33
Blended Fair Value$33.89
Current Price$46.66
Upside-27.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%10.25%0.591.580.612.030.290.220.080.080.080.14
YoY Growth---62.38%157.97%-69.79%594.25%34.22%177.62%-1.60%-5.61%-40.12%-37.09%
Dividend Yield--2.75%7.60%1.70%5.14%0.51%0.77%0.39%0.55%0.58%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)280.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.1835.1121.07
Cash Retained (M)89.3589.3589.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.18-35.11-21.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.1754.2468.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.34268.34268.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.91$47.46$98.61
Upside / Downside-38.03%1.70%111.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)280.90299.15318.60339.31361.36384.85396.40
Payout Ratio68.19%72.55%76.91%81.28%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.55217.04245.05275.78309.47346.37366.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)198.06199.94201.82
Year 2 PV (M)204.06207.95211.87
Year 3 PV (M)209.56215.58221.71
Year 4 PV (M)214.59222.85231.33
Year 5 PV (M)219.18229.76240.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,176.384,378.114,587.55
Equity Value (M)5,221.835,454.175,695.03
Shares Outstanding (M)268.34268.34268.34
Fair Value$19.46$20.33$21.22
Upside / Downside-58.30%-56.44%-54.52%

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