Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Lianxiang Smart Home Co., Ltd. (603272.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.88 - $1.17$1.03
Multi-Stage$1.57 - $1.74$1.65
Blended Fair Value$1.34
Current Price$19.46
Upside-93.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-9.02%0.00%0.160.160.320.210.400.260.120.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.27%-50.00%53.85%-47.68%54.50%108.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.19%1.77%1.06%2.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.182.611.57
Cash Retained (M)20.7120.7120.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.18-2.61-1.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.5218.0919.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.3997.3997.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate-8.24%-7.24%-6.24%
Fair Value$0.88$1.03$1.17
Upside / Downside-95.48%-94.71%-93.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.9119.4017.9916.6915.4814.3614.79
Payout Ratio0.98%18.78%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.203.646.589.0811.1812.9213.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate-8.24%-7.24%-6.24%
Year 1 PV (M)3.293.323.36
Year 2 PV (M)5.365.475.59
Year 3 PV (M)6.666.887.11
Year 4 PV (M)7.407.728.06
Year 5 PV (M)7.718.148.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)122.40129.22136.33
Equity Value (M)152.81160.76169.04
Shares Outstanding (M)97.3997.3997.39
Fair Value$1.57$1.65$1.74
Upside / Downside-91.94%-91.52%-91.08%

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