Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Riyue Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (603218.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.06 - $107.92$101.13
Multi-Stage$15.88 - $17.37$16.61
Blended Fair Value$58.87
Current Price$14.69
Upside300.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.52%21.63%0.280.200.240.300.160.120.080.060.020.04
YoY Growth--38.53%-14.76%-21.88%94.27%30.46%52.33%33.33%280.76%-60.69%-0.31%
Dividend Yield--2.20%1.69%1.07%1.47%0.46%0.97%0.51%0.54%0.06%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)551.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)289.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)262.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.3268.9541.37
Cash Retained (M)262.48262.48262.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.32-68.95-41.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.15193.52221.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,016.561,016.561,016.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.06$101.13$107.92
Upside / Downside199.95%588.44%634.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)551.61587.47625.65666.32709.63755.76778.43
Payout Ratio52.42%59.93%67.45%74.97%82.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)289.14352.09422.00499.52585.33680.18720.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)327.38330.48333.58
Year 2 PV (M)364.84371.79378.80
Year 3 PV (M)401.54413.07424.81
Year 4 PV (M)437.49454.32471.62
Year 5 PV (M)472.70495.54519.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,138.3914,821.2715,530.30
Equity Value (M)16,142.3416,886.4617,658.36
Shares Outstanding (M)1,016.561,016.561,016.56
Fair Value$15.88$16.61$17.37
Upside / Downside8.10%13.08%18.25%

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