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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Yahong Moulding Co., Ltd. (603159.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.37 - $0.54$0.45
Multi-Stage$0.49 - $0.54$0.51
Blended Fair Value$0.48
Current Price$26.79
Upside-98.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.55%15.29%0.110.100.100.100.230.110.110.210.000.03
YoY Growth--9.26%0.81%0.00%-56.52%114.67%0.00%-50.00%0.00%-100.00%-3.00%
Dividend Yield--0.81%0.72%0.72%0.75%1.87%1.03%0.65%1.31%0.00%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.310.820.49
Cash Retained (M)6.476.476.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.31-0.82-0.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.165.655.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.24140.24140.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Fair Value$0.37$0.45$0.54
Upside / Downside-98.62%-98.31%-97.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.556.616.666.716.766.827.02
Payout Ratio1.27%19.01%36.76%54.51%72.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.081.262.453.664.896.146.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-0.21%0.79%1.79%
Year 1 PV (M)1.131.141.15
Year 2 PV (M)1.992.032.07
Year 3 PV (M)2.682.762.84
Year 4 PV (M)3.223.353.49
Year 5 PV (M)3.643.834.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)55.9958.8561.83
Equity Value (M)68.6471.9675.40
Shares Outstanding (M)140.24140.24140.24
Fair Value$0.49$0.51$0.54
Upside / Downside-98.17%-98.08%-97.99%

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