Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical Co.,Ltd (603111.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.53 - $83.09$77.87
Multi-Stage$82.42 - $90.49$86.38
Blended Fair Value$82.13
Current Price$7.98
Upside929.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS56.92%10.35%0.200.010.010.020.020.020.140.080.070.05
YoY Growth--3,725.45%-48.25%-46.81%-15.79%7.29%-85.25%67.85%25.00%33.33%-31.82%
Dividend Yield--2.93%0.09%0.22%0.37%0.42%0.30%2.65%0.75%0.46%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)363.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.7245.4527.27
Cash Retained (M)347.54347.54347.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.72-45.45-27.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)274.81302.08320.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)870.28870.28870.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate-8.35%-8.35%-8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.53$77.87$83.09
Upside / Downside783.81%875.84%941.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)363.62387.26412.43439.24467.79498.19513.14
Payout Ratio4.42%21.54%38.65%55.77%72.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0983.41159.42244.96340.95448.37474.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-8.35%-8.35%-8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.1691.0191.87
Year 2 PV (M)186.24189.79193.37
Year 3 PV (M)309.31318.19327.24
Year 4 PV (M)465.32483.21501.62
Year 5 PV (M)661.41693.36726.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,017.8673,399.7576,911.07
Equity Value (M)71,730.3075,175.3278,751.70
Shares Outstanding (M)870.28870.28870.28
Fair Value$82.42$86.38$90.49
Upside / Downside932.86%982.47%1,033.96%

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