Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ADD Industry (Zhejiang) Co. Ltd. (603089.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.43 - $135.50$126.99
Multi-Stage$19.63 - $21.49$20.54
Blended Fair Value$73.76
Current Price$15.85
Upside365.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.61%-1.52%0.120.180.160.160.290.170.150.140.160.16
YoY Growth---34.75%11.03%2.70%-44.97%73.47%13.72%6.22%-11.10%0.00%12.50%
Dividend Yield--1.18%1.82%1.77%1.90%3.24%1.96%1.38%1.22%0.72%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3319.5811.75
Cash Retained (M)112.48112.48112.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.33-19.58-11.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.1592.90100.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)229.89229.89229.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.43$126.99$135.50
Upside / Downside249.74%701.18%754.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.64166.82177.66189.21201.51214.60221.04
Payout Ratio28.19%40.55%52.92%65.28%77.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.1667.6594.01123.51156.45193.14204.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62.9063.5064.10
Year 2 PV (M)81.2882.8384.39
Year 3 PV (M)99.29102.14105.04
Year 4 PV (M)116.94121.44126.06
Year 5 PV (M)134.24140.72147.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,017.354,211.394,412.86
Equity Value (M)4,512.004,722.024,939.91
Shares Outstanding (M)229.89229.89229.89
Fair Value$19.63$20.54$21.49
Upside / Downside23.83%29.59%35.57%

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