Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co., Ltd. (603063.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$196.85 - $231.92$217.35
Multi-Stage$135.90 - $149.16$142.41
Blended Fair Value$179.88
Current Price$35.75
Upside403.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS72.30%-1.09%0.250.120.120.130.020.020.130.040.020.00
YoY Growth--108.98%-0.50%-5.78%666.11%1.19%-87.42%194.00%102.02%12,152.48%-99.94%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.51%0.44%0.36%0.11%0.20%1.10%0.27%0.12%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)521.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)444.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.3265.2039.12
Cash Retained (M)444.78444.78444.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.32-65.20-39.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.46379.58405.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)447.28447.28447.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.850.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate1.93%1.93%1.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$196.85$217.35$231.92
Upside / Downside450.63%507.97%548.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)521.61555.51591.62630.07671.03714.64736.08
Payout Ratio14.73%29.78%44.84%59.89%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.82165.44265.26377.36502.91643.18680.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.93%1.93%1.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)160.78162.31163.83
Year 2 PV (M)250.52255.30260.11
Year 3 PV (M)346.35356.29366.42
Year 4 PV (M)448.58465.83483.57
Year 5 PV (M)557.53584.46612.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)59,020.8061,871.5364,831.36
Equity Value (M)60,784.5663,695.7166,717.71
Shares Outstanding (M)447.28447.28447.28
Fair Value$135.90$142.41$149.16
Upside / Downside280.14%298.34%317.24%

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