Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GuiZhou YongJi Printing CO.,LTD (603058.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.24 - $62.06$58.16
Multi-Stage$9.70 - $10.62$10.15
Blended Fair Value$34.16
Current Price$9.95
Upside243.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.31%-1.60%0.100.250.250.370.120.050.060.040.040.14
YoY Growth---59.23%1.06%-32.68%206.22%140.00%-17.54%49.05%4.62%-71.37%13.43%
Dividend Yield--1.26%3.00%2.82%4.04%1.50%0.77%0.53%0.22%0.16%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.1216.339.80
Cash Retained (M)75.2775.2775.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.12-16.33-9.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.1558.9465.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.57418.57418.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.24$58.16$62.06
Upside / Downside224.01%484.51%523.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.61139.10148.14157.77168.03178.95184.32
Payout Ratio42.37%51.90%61.42%70.95%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.3472.1991.00111.94135.22161.06170.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.2767.9068.54
Year 2 PV (M)79.0080.5082.02
Year 3 PV (M)90.5593.1595.80
Year 4 PV (M)101.92105.84109.87
Year 5 PV (M)113.10118.57124.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,609.763,784.113,965.14
Equity Value (M)4,061.604,250.074,445.61
Shares Outstanding (M)418.57418.57418.57
Fair Value$9.70$10.15$10.62
Upside / Downside-2.48%2.05%6.74%

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