Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp., Ltd. (601827.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.59 - $148.05$61.76
Multi-Stage$19.76 - $21.66$20.69
Blended Fair Value$41.23
Current Price$8.18
Upside403.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.06%0.00%0.400.390.420.340.190.160.220.080.060.05
YoY Growth--2.29%-7.02%21.29%85.67%16.47%-26.61%179.43%19.39%21.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.71%5.05%5.93%4.39%2.19%1.62%2.20%0.79%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,262.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,073.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.43157.7794.66
Cash Retained (M)1,073.361,073.361,073.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.43-157.77-94.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)820.93915.59978.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.321,680.321,680.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Fair Value$29.59$61.76$148.05
Upside / Downside261.72%655.05%1,709.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,262.141,332.091,405.911,483.831,566.061,652.861,702.44
Payout Ratio14.96%29.97%44.97%59.98%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.78399.17632.30890.041,174.411,487.571,574.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Year 1 PV (M)370.68374.23377.77
Year 2 PV (M)545.27555.75566.33
Year 3 PV (M)712.75733.40754.45
Year 4 PV (M)873.36907.26942.13
Year 5 PV (M)1,027.291,077.371,129.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,671.0831,117.5932,619.97
Equity Value (M)33,200.4234,765.5936,390.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.321,680.321,680.32
Fair Value$19.76$20.69$21.66
Upside / Downside141.55%152.93%164.75%

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