Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Film Co., Ltd. (601595.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.18 - $3.23$2.68
Multi-Stage$4.12 - $4.53$4.32
Blended Fair Value$3.50
Current Price$29.97
Upside-88.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.61%9.89%0.220.090.000.010.100.200.220.220.000.09
YoY Growth--152.13%8,042.81%-79.63%-94.86%-49.61%-9.91%-0.42%0.00%-100.00%11.68%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.28%0.01%0.05%0.79%2.00%1.73%1.42%0.00%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.4115.269.15
Cash Retained (M)78.5678.5678.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.41-15.26-9.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.1563.3169.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)440.30440.30440.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Fair Value$2.18$2.68$3.23
Upside / Downside-92.71%-91.05%-89.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.06120.62119.20117.79116.40115.03118.48
Payout Ratio35.64%46.51%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.5056.1068.4080.4092.10103.52109.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)51.5452.0652.59
Year 2 PV (M)57.7258.9160.11
Year 3 PV (M)62.3364.2666.23
Year 4 PV (M)65.6068.3371.13
Year 5 PV (M)67.7471.2774.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,509.061,587.791,669.77
Equity Value (M)1,813.991,902.621,994.78
Shares Outstanding (M)440.30440.30440.30
Fair Value$4.12$4.32$4.53
Upside / Downside-86.25%-85.58%-84.88%

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