Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Port Company Limited (601228.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.93 - $23.57$22.09
Multi-Stage$3.48 - $3.81$3.64
Blended Fair Value$12.87
Current Price$3.30
Upside289.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.36%7.60%0.110.100.100.080.070.050.060.050.050.07
YoY Growth--14.18%-0.75%25.06%21.83%18.35%-14.31%17.83%11.33%-31.05%31.37%
Dividend Yield--3.51%2.81%3.21%2.45%1.93%1.73%1.22%0.99%1.23%2.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)893.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)402.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)490.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)178.76111.7267.03
Cash Retained (M)490.87490.87490.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-178.76-111.72-67.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)312.11379.14423.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,542.057,542.057,542.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.93$22.09$23.57
Upside / Downside200.84%569.29%614.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)893.78951.871,013.741,079.641,149.811,224.551,261.29
Payout Ratio45.08%54.06%63.05%72.03%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)402.91514.62639.14777.68931.531,102.101,166.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)478.64483.17487.71
Year 2 PV (M)552.89563.43574.06
Year 3 PV (M)625.71643.67661.97
Year 4 PV (M)697.09723.90751.47
Year 5 PV (M)767.07804.12842.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,151.2324,269.4425,430.45
Equity Value (M)26,272.6227,487.7228,748.24
Shares Outstanding (M)7,542.057,542.057,542.05
Fair Value$3.48$3.64$3.81
Upside / Downside5.56%10.44%15.51%

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