Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Em Technology Co., Ltd. (601208.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.29 - $41.58$38.97
Multi-Stage$49.74 - $54.59$52.12
Blended Fair Value$45.54
Current Price$20.24
Upside125.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.73%11.82%0.210.160.140.100.020.020.040.070.050.08
YoY Growth--31.28%12.75%45.89%308.34%-2.62%-45.54%-39.25%45.63%-40.30%23.75%
Dividend Yield--2.14%1.76%1.06%0.80%0.22%0.61%1.07%1.67%0.85%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)227.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)155.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.5628.4717.08
Cash Retained (M)72.2572.2572.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.56-28.47-17.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.6943.7755.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,089.431,089.431,089.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate-11.60%-11.60%-11.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.29$38.97$41.58
Upside / Downside74.37%92.53%105.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)227.78242.58258.35275.15293.03312.08321.44
Payout Ratio68.28%72.63%76.97%81.31%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)155.53176.18198.85223.73251.00280.87297.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-11.60%-11.60%-11.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.42199.29201.16
Year 2 PV (M)249.69254.44259.25
Year 3 PV (M)314.79323.83333.04
Year 4 PV (M)395.74410.96426.61
Year 5 PV (M)496.22520.19545.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,530.2355,067.4657,701.79
Equity Value (M)54,184.0956,776.1759,466.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,089.431,089.431,089.43
Fair Value$49.74$52.12$54.59
Upside / Downside145.73%157.49%169.69%

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