Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group Co., Ltd. (601177.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$107.40 - $126.56$118.59
Multi-Stage$71.58 - $78.62$75.04
Blended Fair Value$96.82
Current Price$18.35
Upside427.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.74%-2.26%0.130.170.110.120.120.020.170.200.170.16
YoY Growth---23.12%59.75%-11.53%3.86%482.75%-88.58%-13.90%15.44%7.19%-0.50%
Dividend Yield--0.73%2.00%1.03%1.46%1.46%0.26%1.22%2.59%1.49%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7932.3719.42
Cash Retained (M)234.34234.34234.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.79-32.37-19.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)182.54201.97214.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)404.44404.44404.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate2.13%2.13%2.13%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Fair Value$107.40$118.59$126.56
Upside / Downside485.31%546.29%589.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.96274.08290.09307.02324.95343.92354.24
Payout Ratio9.51%25.61%41.71%57.80%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.6370.19120.98177.47240.14309.53327.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.13%2.13%2.13%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)68.0868.7369.37
Year 2 PV (M)113.82116.00118.20
Year 3 PV (M)161.94166.62171.39
Year 4 PV (M)212.54220.77229.23
Year 5 PV (M)265.72278.64292.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,129.2629,496.6430,916.69
Equity Value (M)28,951.3530,347.3931,796.94
Shares Outstanding (M)404.44404.44404.44
Fair Value$71.58$75.04$78.62
Upside / Downside290.10%308.91%328.45%

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