Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Yulong Gold Co., Ltd. (601028.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.06 - $6.13$5.03
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.91$8.49
Blended Fair Value$6.76
Current Price$14.23
Upside-52.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%-0.70%0.100.090.010.000.000.000.000.070.120.14
YoY Growth--6.87%824.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.94%-42.19%-20.61%42.08%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.73%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.68%1.44%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)368.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)273.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.7446.0927.65
Cash Retained (M)273.42273.42273.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.74-46.09-27.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.68227.33245.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)778.53778.53778.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.06$5.03$6.13
Upside / Downside-71.48%-64.62%-56.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)368.71365.02361.37357.75354.18350.64361.15
Payout Ratio25.84%38.68%51.51%64.34%77.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.29141.17186.13230.17273.31315.57334.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)130.42131.75133.08
Year 2 PV (M)158.86162.12165.41
Year 3 PV (M)181.49187.11192.83
Year 4 PV (M)199.10207.35215.86
Year 5 PV (M)212.38223.44234.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,419.295,701.495,995.32
Equity Value (M)6,301.556,613.266,937.46
Shares Outstanding (M)778.53778.53778.53
Fair Value$8.09$8.49$8.91
Upside / Downside-43.12%-40.31%-37.38%

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