Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhewen Interactive Group Co., Ltd. (600986.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.31 - $16.09$7.10
Multi-Stage$4.81 - $5.28$5.04
Blended Fair Value$6.07
Current Price$8.24
Upside-26.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.30%4.55%0.070.020.030.030.020.040.060.050.050.05
YoY Growth--222.93%-18.33%10.06%30.85%-48.64%-39.61%31.76%-0.13%-11.83%14.17%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.43%0.42%0.40%0.48%1.07%1.05%0.58%0.41%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3515.849.51
Cash Retained (M)9.159.159.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.35-15.84-9.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.20-6.69-0.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.561,523.561,523.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate4.61%4.61%4.61%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Fair Value$3.31$7.10$16.09
Upside / Downside-59.84%-13.89%95.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.75131.25135.91140.73145.72150.90155.42
Payout Ratio92.78%92.22%91.67%91.11%90.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.60121.04124.58128.22131.96135.81143.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.61%4.61%4.61%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)114.59115.71116.82
Year 2 PV (M)111.65113.84116.05
Year 3 PV (M)108.79112.00115.28
Year 4 PV (M)105.99110.19114.50
Year 5 PV (M)103.26108.40113.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,783.287,120.537,471.06
Equity Value (M)7,327.577,680.668,047.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,523.561,523.561,523.56
Fair Value$4.81$5.04$5.28
Upside / Downside-41.63%-38.82%-35.90%

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