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Definitive Analysis

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China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. (600900.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.02 - $265.47$248.78
Multi-Stage$41.17 - $45.07$43.08
Blended Fair Value$145.93
Current Price$27.25
Upside435.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.07%14.57%1.291.411.350.820.780.760.770.800.620.82
YoY Growth---8.84%4.99%64.77%4.16%2.91%-1.61%-3.30%28.14%-23.97%148.69%
Dividend Yield--4.63%5.71%6.33%3.71%3.66%4.41%4.58%4.99%4.70%6.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,664.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,409.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,254.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,532.824,083.022,449.81
Cash Retained (M)20,254.3220,254.3220,254.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,532.82-4,083.02-2,449.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,721.4916,171.3017,804.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,470.2624,470.2624,470.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.660.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.660.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$135.02$248.78$265.47
Upside / Downside395.47%812.96%874.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,664.1234,787.2937,048.4739,456.6242,021.3044,752.6846,095.26
Payout Ratio37.99%48.39%58.80%69.20%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,409.8116,834.8721,782.7627,302.7433,448.2940,277.4142,638.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15,683.3415,832.0015,980.66
Year 2 PV (M)18,904.7419,264.8219,628.30
Year 3 PV (M)22,074.6122,708.3023,353.99
Year 4 PV (M)25,193.5726,162.4527,159.00
Year 5 PV (M)28,262.2229,627.3031,044.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)897,265.87940,604.15985,601.09
Equity Value (M)1,007,384.361,054,199.011,102,767.65
Shares Outstanding (M)24,470.2624,470.2624,470.26
Fair Value$41.17$43.08$45.07
Upside / Downside51.07%58.09%65.38%

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