Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Inner Mongolia MengDian HuaNeng Thermal Power Corporation Limited (600863.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.78 - $23.35$12.34
Multi-Stage$8.42 - $9.25$8.83
Blended Fair Value$10.58
Current Price$4.09
Upside158.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.25%3.16%0.240.160.100.110.110.080.030.020.070.16
YoY Growth--48.16%64.00%-10.82%0.00%31.25%220.04%30.44%-72.56%-53.44%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--6.03%3.47%2.96%3.58%4.05%3.26%0.89%0.75%2.20%4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,063.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,759.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)412.71257.94154.77
Cash Retained (M)1,759.301,759.301,759.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-412.71-257.94-154.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,346.591,501.361,604.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,638.576,638.576,638.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Fair Value$7.78$12.34$23.35
Upside / Downside90.21%201.64%470.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,063.552,146.932,233.672,323.922,417.812,515.502,590.96
Payout Ratio14.74%29.80%44.85%59.90%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.25639.681,001.721,391.971,812.122,263.952,396.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Year 1 PV (M)595.80601.58607.36
Year 2 PV (M)868.99885.94903.05
Year 3 PV (M)1,124.681,157.751,191.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,363.701,417.421,472.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,586.841,665.351,746.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,384.9252,877.7555,468.29
Equity Value (M)55,924.9358,605.7861,389.79
Shares Outstanding (M)6,638.576,638.576,638.57
Fair Value$8.42$8.83$9.25
Upside / Downside105.97%115.85%126.10%

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