Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Xinjiekou Department Store Co., Ltd. (600682.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.52 - $0.68$0.60
Multi-Stage$0.98 - $1.08$1.03
Blended Fair Value$0.82
Current Price$7.31
Upside-88.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.78%-10.97%0.040.040.070.080.070.080.280.310.290.38
YoY Growth--6.56%-41.68%-10.76%15.31%-11.58%-72.05%-7.94%6.45%-24.63%168.12%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.70%0.79%0.76%0.76%0.95%1.72%0.93%0.79%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.1827.6116.57
Cash Retained (M)196.49196.49196.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.18-27.61-16.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.31168.88179.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,307.281,307.281,307.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-12.78%-11.78%-10.78%
Fair Value$0.52$0.60$0.68
Upside / Downside-92.86%-91.74%-90.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.90194.89171.94151.69133.83118.07121.61
Payout Ratio11.05%26.84%42.63%58.42%74.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.4152.3173.3088.6299.31106.26112.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-12.78%-11.78%-10.78%
Year 1 PV (M)47.0947.6348.17
Year 2 PV (M)59.4160.7862.16
Year 3 PV (M)64.6666.9169.21
Year 4 PV (M)65.2468.2871.43
Year 5 PV (M)62.8466.5270.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)975.441,032.661,092.52
Equity Value (M)1,274.681,342.781,413.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,307.281,307.281,307.28
Fair Value$0.98$1.03$1.08
Upside / Downside-86.66%-85.95%-85.20%

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