Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Fujian Longxi Bearing (Group) Co., Ltd (600592.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.33 - $38.09$35.70
Multi-Stage$22.69 - $24.90$23.78
Blended Fair Value$29.74
Current Price$26.98
Upside10.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.44%-0.69%0.140.020.160.140.140.120.120.120.110.12
YoY Growth--535.32%-86.43%17.86%1.03%9.87%0.05%0.57%9.09%-3.89%-21.64%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.21%2.06%1.48%1.31%0.88%1.24%1.40%0.58%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.339.585.75
Cash Retained (M)23.5223.5223.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.33-9.58-5.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.1913.9417.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.23400.23400.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate1.80%1.80%1.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.33$35.70$38.09
Upside / Downside19.84%32.31%41.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.6681.6486.9592.6098.62105.03108.18
Payout Ratio69.32%73.45%77.59%81.73%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.1459.9767.4675.6884.6894.53100.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.80%1.80%1.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.3658.9159.46
Year 2 PV (M)63.8965.1066.33
Year 3 PV (M)69.7471.7473.78
Year 4 PV (M)75.9478.8681.86
Year 5 PV (M)82.4986.4890.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,732.669,154.459,592.39
Equity Value (M)9,083.089,515.549,964.44
Shares Outstanding (M)400.23400.23400.23
Fair Value$22.69$23.78$24.90
Upside / Downside-15.88%-11.88%-7.72%

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