Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Wolong Electric Group Co.,Ltd. (600580.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.64 - $130.27$70.62
Multi-Stage$61.68 - $67.95$64.75
Blended Fair Value$67.69
Current Price$48.42
Upside39.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.37%2.99%0.270.310.330.320.340.300.270.220.220.05
YoY Growth---15.61%-3.76%3.09%-6.95%13.84%8.87%26.59%0.42%361.96%-76.33%
Dividend Yield--1.20%2.31%3.11%2.90%3.76%3.48%3.42%2.97%3.09%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)973.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)605.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.64121.6572.99
Cash Retained (M)605.97605.97605.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.64-121.65-72.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)411.34484.33532.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,423.291,423.291,423.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate2.85%2.85%2.85%
Growth Rate0.99%1.99%2.99%
Fair Value$29.64$70.62$130.27
Upside / Downside-38.80%45.85%169.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)973.19992.521,012.231,032.331,052.831,073.741,105.95
Payout Ratio37.73%48.19%58.64%69.09%79.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.22478.26593.57713.27837.49966.361,023.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.85%2.85%2.85%
Growth Rate0.99%1.99%2.99%
Year 1 PV (M)460.45465.01469.57
Year 2 PV (M)550.18561.13572.19
Year 3 PV (M)636.51655.61675.08
Year 4 PV (M)719.53748.46778.25
Year 5 PV (M)799.33839.70881.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)84,617.9588,891.3493,335.67
Equity Value (M)87,783.9592,161.2596,712.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,423.291,423.291,423.29
Fair Value$61.68$64.75$67.95
Upside / Downside27.38%33.73%40.33%

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