Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Railway Hi-tech Industry Corporation Limited (600528.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.82 - $118.74$111.21
Multi-Stage$59.04 - $65.19$62.05
Blended Fair Value$86.63
Current Price$8.28
Upside946.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.67%-10.44%0.140.240.160.200.180.120.470.200.530.39
YoY Growth---40.72%46.85%-19.18%14.34%48.85%-74.56%131.86%-61.96%35.11%-8.59%
Dividend Yield--1.72%3.07%1.71%2.55%1.95%1.24%3.81%1.74%3.28%2.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,444.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,356.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)288.95180.60108.36
Cash Retained (M)1,356.221,356.221,356.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-288.95-180.60-108.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,067.261,175.621,247.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,272.822,272.822,272.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.520.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.520.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate0.07%0.07%0.07%
Growth Rate-1.03%-0.03%0.97%
Fair Value$45.82$111.21$118.74
Upside / Downside453.34%1,243.11%1,334.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,444.771,444.331,443.891,443.451,443.011,442.571,485.85
Payout Ratio6.13%22.90%39.68%56.45%73.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.56330.80572.90814.851,056.661,298.311,374.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.07%0.07%0.07%
Growth Rate-1.03%-0.03%0.97%
Year 1 PV (M)327.27330.58333.88
Year 2 PV (M)560.73572.12583.63
Year 3 PV (M)789.03813.19837.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,012.251,053.791,096.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,230.481,293.911,359.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)130,259.47136,974.60143,963.85
Equity Value (M)134,179.24141,038.19148,175.73
Shares Outstanding (M)2,272.822,272.822,272.82
Fair Value$59.04$62.05$65.19
Upside / Downside613.00%649.45%687.38%

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