Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.,Ltd (600523.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.39 - $81.67$38.64
Multi-Stage$40.36 - $44.71$42.49
Blended Fair Value$40.57
Current Price$14.58
Upside178.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.05%-4.79%0.130.130.140.210.170.150.150.140.170.20
YoY Growth---0.68%-7.64%-33.50%19.84%11.26%2.36%7.56%-15.85%-18.12%-0.84%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.03%0.93%0.89%1.16%1.19%1.22%1.14%1.05%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.7122.3213.39
Cash Retained (M)113.92113.92113.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.71-22.32-13.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.2191.60100.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)394.34394.34394.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate-2.52%-2.52%-2.52%
Growth Rate-4.50%-3.50%-2.50%
Fair Value$17.39$38.64$81.67
Upside / Downside19.26%165.04%460.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178.55172.30166.26160.43154.81149.38153.87
Payout Ratio36.20%46.96%57.72%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.6380.9195.96109.86122.67134.45142.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.52%-2.52%-2.52%
Growth Rate-4.50%-3.50%-2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)82.1483.0083.86
Year 2 PV (M)98.90100.98103.08
Year 3 PV (M)114.94118.59122.31
Year 4 PV (M)130.29135.83141.55
Year 5 PV (M)144.96152.71160.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,345.4216,165.8817,021.08
Equity Value (M)15,916.6316,756.9817,632.66
Shares Outstanding (M)394.34394.34394.34
Fair Value$40.36$42.49$44.71
Upside / Downside176.84%191.45%206.68%

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