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Definitive Analysis

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Fujian Longking Co., Ltd. (600388.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.15 - $47.77$27.69
Multi-Stage$19.18 - $21.01$20.08
Blended Fair Value$23.88
Current Price$15.09
Upside58.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.94%5.48%0.270.250.320.260.260.310.260.210.190.17
YoY Growth--6.59%-22.62%22.94%0.77%-15.71%18.84%22.34%14.03%10.77%7.82%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.95%1.83%2.47%2.69%3.41%1.98%1.45%1.46%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)963.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)412.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)551.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.67120.4272.25
Cash Retained (M)551.24551.24551.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.67-120.42-72.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)358.57430.82478.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,209.411,209.411,209.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Fair Value$18.15$27.69$47.77
Upside / Downside20.31%83.51%216.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)963.341,003.951,046.261,090.361,136.311,184.211,219.73
Payout Ratio42.78%52.22%61.67%71.11%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)412.11524.29645.20775.37915.371,065.781,128.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate3.21%4.21%5.21%
Year 1 PV (M)486.03490.74495.44
Year 2 PV (M)554.46565.26576.16
Year 3 PV (M)617.69635.82654.30
Year 4 PV (M)676.00702.58729.94
Year 5 PV (M)729.64765.68803.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,126.8421,120.9122,153.88
Equity Value (M)23,190.6624,280.9825,412.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,209.411,209.411,209.41
Fair Value$19.18$20.08$21.01
Upside / Downside27.07%33.05%39.25%

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