Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.08 - $2.86 | $2.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $6.40 - $7.08 | $6.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $4.60 | |
| Current Price | $4.20 | |
| Upside | 9.54% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -9.05% | -5.73% | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 23.48% | -41.78% | -1.11% | 287.78% | -77.43% | -4.69% | 8.59% | -17.75% | -7.35% | 12.89% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.49% | 3.97% | 7.95% | 7.16% | 2.17% | 9.39% | 9.49% | 8.81% | 8.27% | 11.43% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 640.13 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 293.85 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 346.28 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 128.03 | 80.02 | 48.01 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 346.28 | 346.28 | 346.28 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -128.03 | -80.02 | -48.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 218.26 | 266.27 | 298.27 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,609.39 | 1,609.39 | 1,609.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | -7.73% | -6.73% | -5.73% |
| Fair Value | $2.08 | $2.47 | $2.86 |
| Upside / Downside | -50.53% | -41.14% | -31.92% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 640.13 | 597.03 | 556.84 | 519.34 | 484.38 | 451.76 | 465.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 45.90% | 54.72% | 63.54% | 72.36% | 81.18% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 293.85 | 326.72 | 353.83 | 375.81 | 393.22 | 406.59 | 430.42 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | -7.73% | -6.73% | -5.73% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 303.78 | 307.07 | 310.37 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 305.89 | 312.56 | 319.30 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 302.09 | 312.02 | 322.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 293.90 | 306.85 | 320.22 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 282.55 | 298.20 | 314.53 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,805.15 | 9,292.76 | 9,801.74 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,293.36 | 10,829.46 | 11,388.32 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,609.39 | 1,609.39 | 1,609.39 |
| Fair Value | $6.40 | $6.73 | $7.08 |
| Upside / Downside | 52.28% | 60.21% | 68.48% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SO | The Southern Company | 3.09% | $2.69 | 67.01% |
| CFR | Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | 3.08% | $3.94 | 39.68% |
| CMS | CMS Energy Corporation | 3.08% | $2.17 | 62.27% |
| SJW | SJW Group | 3.08% | $1.60 | 52.08% |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp. | 3.08% | $1.54 | 27.05% |
| 0HCT.L | Alliant Energy Corporation | 3.07% | $1.99 | 62.84% |
| 0M3L.L | Zions Bancorporation, National Association | 3.07% | $1.79 | 31.01% |
| IVZ | Invesco Ltd. | 3.07% | $0.83 | 35.83% |
| SWX | Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 3.07% | $2.46 | 38.44% |
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | 3.06% | $2.48 | 59.65% |
| CASS | Cass Information Systems, Inc. | 3.05% | $1.24 | 52.58% |
| CIVB | Civista Bancshares, Inc. | 3.05% | $0.67 | 25.26% |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 3.05% | $5.41 | 98.14% |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT, Inc. | 3.04% | $1.10 | 89.62% |
| UCB | United Community Banks, Inc. | 3.04% | $0.95 | 36.76% |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants, Inc. | 3.03% | $5.68 | 60.69% |
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators Corporation | 3.02% | $1.36 | 34.55% |
| VG | Venture Global, Inc. | 3.02% | $0.21 | 24.09% |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana | 3.01% | $0.54 | 35.96% |
| TOWN | TowneBank | 3.01% | $1.00 | 45.24% |
| GBCI | Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | 3.00% | $1.34 | 64.06% |
| MBWM | Mercantile Bank Corporation | 3.00% | $1.43 | 27.14% |
| PPL | PPL Corporation | 3.00% | $1.05 | 71.70% |
| DTSQ | DT Cloud Star Acquisition Corporation | 2.99% | $0.32 | 87.02% |
| EBMT | Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. | 2.99% | $0.58 | 33.76% |
| INDB | Independent Bank Corp. | 2.99% | $2.19 | 35.86% |
| ESSA | ESSA Bancorp, Inc. | 2.98% | $0.61 | 39.75% |
| RDN | Radian Group Inc. | 2.98% | $1.07 | 25.60% |
| 0K0X.L | MetLife, Inc. | 2.96% | $2.36 | 41.08% |
| CUBB | Customers Bancorp, Inc 5.375% S | 2.96% | $0.66 | 12.54% |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company | 2.96% | $0.47 | 20.02% |
| SD | SandRidge Energy, Inc. | 2.96% | $0.44 | 24.38% |
| STRW | Strawberry Fields REIT LLC | 2.95% | $0.38 | 70.76% |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | 2.94% | $3.23 | 32.02% |
| JWN | Nordstrom, Inc. | 2.94% | $0.73 | 42.03% |
| PKBK | Parke Bancorp, Inc. | 2.94% | $0.71 | 25.08% |
| 0JW2.L | M&T Bank Corporation | 2.93% | $5.91 | 33.38% |
| EIG | Employers Holdings, Inc. | 2.93% | $1.26 | 48.48% |
| MYE | Myers Industries, Inc. | 2.93% | $0.55 | 73.41% |
| RM | Regional Management Corp. | 2.93% | $1.15 | 28.16% |
| HSY | The Hershey Company | 2.92% | $5.33 | 79.75% |
| STZ | Constellation Brands, Inc. | 2.92% | $4.12 | 59.24% |
| AROC | Archrock, Inc. | 2.91% | $0.77 | 51.05% |
| JXN | Jackson Financial Inc. | 2.91% | $3.13 | 38.19% |
| OSPN | OneSpan Inc. | 2.91% | $0.36 | 23.87% |
| 0LC6.L | Sysco Corporation | 2.90% | $2.10 | 55.57% |
| EXE | Expand Energy Corporation | 2.89% | $3.17 | 87.89% |
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | 2.89% | $4.09 | 59.50% |
| RES | RPC, Inc. | 2.89% | $0.16 | 72.96% |
| 0M1R.L | Xcel Energy Inc. | 2.88% | $2.16 | 65.69% |