Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sinomach Automobile Co., Ltd. (600335.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $1.77$1.55
Multi-Stage$3.65 - $4.04$3.84
Blended Fair Value$2.69
Current Price$5.98
Upside-54.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.94%-16.90%0.080.140.130.220.190.350.420.230.210.68
YoY Growth---45.07%9.90%-40.75%13.35%-45.05%-17.32%79.09%13.84%-69.78%38.43%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.77%1.35%2.55%3.64%6.74%5.32%2.07%1.59%6.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.3655.8533.51
Cash Retained (M)227.90227.90227.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.36-55.85-33.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.54172.05194.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.171,496.171,496.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-9.37%-8.37%-7.37%
Fair Value$1.31$1.55$1.77
Upside / Downside-78.04%-74.15%-70.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.81409.42375.16343.77315.00288.64297.30
Payout Ratio48.99%57.20%65.40%73.60%81.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.91234.17245.34253.01257.67259.78275.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-9.37%-8.37%-7.37%
Year 1 PV (M)216.22218.61220.99
Year 2 PV (M)209.17213.81218.51
Year 3 PV (M)199.17205.84212.65
Year 4 PV (M)187.29195.70204.38
Year 5 PV (M)174.35184.18194.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,480.114,732.784,996.73
Equity Value (M)5,466.315,750.926,047.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.171,496.171,496.17
Fair Value$3.65$3.84$4.04
Upside / Downside-38.90%-35.72%-32.41%

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